„Ni s-a dat de inteles ca nu suntem bine primiti in privatizarea CEC”
Intr-un interviu acordat publicatiei financiare online Portfolio (www.portfolio.hu) din Ungaria, Andreas Treichl a declarat urmatoarele:
– Reporter: Este Bank nu a avut niciodata legaturi cu BCR. De ce?
– Andreas Treichl: “Este o situatie mult mai dificila, in parte datorata structurii actionariatului BCR. Pentru ca statul detine doar 35% din actiunile bancii, nu o poti cumpara daca nu ai o intelegere cu ceilalti actionari. O alta problema este ca noi avem impresia ca guvernul Romaniei ar vrea ca BCR sa fie cumparata de o banca din una din cele mai mari tari europene. Pina cind guvernul nu ne da un semnal puternic pozitiv, spunind, de exemplu
Bancile romanesti au cele mai bune cotatii bursiere din lume
-Reporter: Valoarea bancilor romanesti este cam ridicata. Credeti ca evaluarea bancilor romanesti este realista?
– Andreas Treichl: “Bancile romanesti cotate la bursa din Bucuresti au cele mai bune valori din lume. Daca aceasta evaluare este sau nu realista, depinde de situatia pietei.
Multor banci internationale le-a trebuit multi ani sa realizeze ca Europa Centrala si de Est este o regiune atractiva – si este suprinzator cit de mult timp le trebuie altor institutii financiare sa ajunga la aceasta concluziel. Banci care nu erau interesate de tarile baltice, de Polonia, Cehia, Slovacia, Ungaria si Coatia au descoperit deodata ca aceasta este o regiune interesanta iar acum vor sa mearga si in Romania.
Nu suntem printre primii sositi in regiunea din centrul si estul Europei, precum Raiffeisen. Am ajuns aici foarte tirziu, insa in acel moment am declarat ca vom cumpara mari banci de retail. La acea data, nimeni nu era interesat in retail banking, in timp ce acum toata lumea vrea o bucata din aceasta piata.
Pretul de cumparare a CEC va fi doar o parte din suma care va fi investita. Oricine va cumpara CEC va avea nevoie de investitii substantiale daca vrea sa construiasca o buna banca de retail.”
„Tinta noastra in Romania este CEC, insa am studiat si alte variante”
„Tinta noastra in Romania este CEC, banca pentru care practic toate celelalte banci din afara Romaniei si-au exprimat interesul. Nu vrem sa mentionam alte nume, insa am studiat si alte optiuni. Fireste ca nu ne putem baza pe un singur obiectiv.
CEC a fost odata o banca uriasa insa acum si-a pierdut o buna parte din cota de piata. Cu toate acestea, cred ca este o buna baza de plecare pentru cistigarea pietei si va putea sa atraga pe romanii care inca nu utilizeaza serviciile bancare. Gradul de raspindire a serviciilor bancare este inca foarte redus in Romania si inca exista milioane de romani care nu folosesc serviciile bancare. CEC este intr-o foarte bune pozitie de a-i atrage pe acesti oameni cu servicii si produse specifice.”
Varianta completa a interviului, in limba engleza:
INTERVIEW – Erste Bank chief Andreas Treichl wants sole CE stock exchange
Thursday, April 14, 2005 12:05:00 PM
http://www.portfolio.hu/en/cikkek.tdp?cCheck=1&k=1&i=3941&p=1
Erste Bank was a medium-sized Austrian financial institution with 600,000 clients in 1997-ben. In seven years its clientele grew to its twenty fold and Erste has become the largest bank in the region. Portfolio.hu talked with Erste Bank’s Chairman-CEO Andreas Treichl in Vienna.
Treichl talked about Erste Bank’s acquisition plans, growth potential on the market and a squandered possibility to merge with Hungary’s OTP Bank. He also described the pillars of independence for Erste, made remarks on Hungary’s extra banking tax and Postabank.
Treichl also expressed doubts about national stock exchanges’ right to exist in the future, and said it would be useless to float Erste on the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE). Treichl believes a unified, single-centred Central and Eastern European bourse is the only solution for national stock exchanges to remain afloat.
Treichl reiterated that they were interested in Serbia’s Novosadska Banka and Romania’s CEC, and added that they were open to increase market share in Hungary via the purchase of another bank.
– Based on the number of its clients and the size of its assets, Erste Bank has become the largest bank in Central and Eastern Europe in 7 years. What were the key factors behind this success?
– The factor that Erste Bank became the biggest in terms of assets is not really important to us, as we basically look at our client base and that is what is really important. We are a financial institution that is also engaged in corporate banking, trading, financing for municipalities in big projects, but our main goal and key task is to service the building of the middle class in Central and Eastern Europe. Our 12 million clients in the region give us a market share of far above 20% of the bankable population. This is what matters the most, not that we are the No.1 or No.2 in terms of assets. We want many clients, who over the next 10-15 could become the most attractive client group in all of Europe.
We have high hopes for the years to come. The Old Europe has reached a very high level of income, prosperity, and social welfare, which is unlikely to grow much in the following years, while in the new European countries the dynamics are completely different. We believe that there will be fast and strong catching up process over the next years during which this part of Europe will come closer to the average income and average GDP per capita of the European Union. Owing to this, it will be not just Erste Bank, but its clients too, who will benefit the most from this development.
– Erste Bank had a net profit of EUR 544 million in 2004 and has targeted EUR 600 million and EUR 750 million for 2005 and 2006, respectively. Which regions will be the sources for such a growth?
– We expect more or less all of our foreign subsidiaries to grow at about the same pace. We don’t see dramatic differences between the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia. Slovakia has put itself into a very strong position with the new tax legislation but also the way its has transferred its social welfare system, and Hungary and the Czech Republic also made some very good moves.
We hope that political discussions in Croatia regarding EU accession will turn out to be successful over the next months. As Croatia has additional advantage of a very strong tourism sector, we believe it will be able to catch up with the other three countries.
– What is the most important factor of success in your priority list: ROE & profit numbers, or rather the number of clients and asset growth?
– Both top line and bottom line growth are really important for us. By top line growth we mean the absolute business volume, which is increasing. Of course it is not enough to make our present clients happy with us; we also need to attract new clients. Over the next years it is our absolute No.1 goal to bring our services and the quality of our products to such a level that we can increase our presence in the market. We have already reached the level of profitability that is satisfactory to the shareholders, and now we have to be very careful how to create the conditions for a stable and long-term growth. You can’t run a business long term by making only your shareholders happy. Success also depends on how happy you can make your clients as well as your employees. At a certain point of time your shareholders will become unhappy if clients are not happy anymore.
A retail business like we have is a very long-term business. It is not that one quarter you can make a lot of money, and in another you cannot. You have to build client relationships for a very long period. If you ruin your reputation at one point of time your business gets hit.
– Which is the target return of equity (ROE) that you think is satisfactory for the shareholders and for the management?
– A ROE satisfactory for shareholders is the only ROE that is satisfactory for the management. I think we have reached a level of ROE where shareholders can say they’re happy with it. However, it is not our goal to squeeze out as much as we possibly can. The only way you can have real growth is to sell more products and more services. We want to offer the right products and services at the right price. This can be the only engine of growth, rather than price hikes, staff cuts or lower salaries.
– What are the next targets in your regional expansion? Which countries, which banks?
– Our next targets are Serbia and Romania, because both countries have shown impressive development over the past years. They have strong economic and cultural relations with Hungary and also with Croatia. We see that the mobility between Hungary, Croatia, Vojvodina and Transylvania has been increasing dramatically. Although there are some political and nationalistic tensions between some regions, I believe these regions will eventually get closer to each other, and therefore it makes a lot of sense for us to move into these markets.
Presently we are looking at Novosadska Banka in Serbia, where we have a very strong competition already. Our target in Romania is CEC, for which practically every other bank outside Romania has shown interest. We don’t mention them by name, but we have been also looking for other options. We can’t rely on a single target of course.
CEC once was a huge bank but then it lost a lot of its market share. Nevertheless, I believe it’s a very good base to gain market share, and it would be able to attract Romanians that do not use bank services yet. Bank penetration is still very low in Romania, and there are still millions of Romanians who don’t use banks. CEC is in a very good position to reach these people with the right services and products.
– The valuation of Romanian banks is rather high. Do you think the valuation of Romanian banks is realistic?
– If you look at Romanian banks that are quoted on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, you will see that they are the most highly valued banks in the world. Whether this is realistic or not depends on the market situation.
For some international banks it took many years to realise that Central and Eastern Europe is an attractive region – and it is surprising how long it takes for some financial institutions to come to this conclusion.
Banks which were once not interested in the Baltics, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and in Croatia have suddenly seen this is an interesting region and want to go to Romania now.
We are not an early mover in the CEE region, like Raiffeisen for example. We came very late, but then we said we would buy big retail banks. At that time nobody was interested in retail banking, while now everybody wants a piece of the segment.
The purchase price of CEC will only be one part of the amount that should be spent. Whoever buys CEC it will need substantial investments if it wants to build a good retail bank.
– Erste Bank has never been connected to BCR. Why?
– It is a more difficult situation, partly due to BCR’s ownership structure. As the state has only 35% of BCR, you cannot buy it unless you have an arrangement whit the other owners. Another problem is that we have the impression that the Romanian government would like BCR to be bought by a bank from one of the very large EU countries. Unless the government gives us a very strong positive signal, e.g. by saying “Erste Bank please consider to buy BCR”, we would not take part in the privatisation of the bank. We don’t want to start a process where we have been given a clear indication that we would not really be welcome.
– What is the spending limit of Erste Bank?
– The only limit we have is that our Tier 1 ratio must not drop below 6%. It is now 6.7% and if it drops to 5.9% for one quarter, that’s fine, it’s no big problem. However if you look at our past history we have always been able to attract new capital whenever we had a good acquisition opportunity. So in reality if we want something that is beyond our financial means we can go through the market. We don’t plan it, but it is not a bad time for the moment to go to the market.
– Erste Bank is present in 6 countries and is currently planning to expand into 2 (Romania and Serbia). What other potential targets do you have in mind…Bulgaria, Ukraine, Russia, Poland or Turkey maybe?
– We have learned our lesson two years ago when we were interested in Bulgaria and we lost against OTP. The moral of the story for us was this: never do anything if you are not 100% convinced that it is right. When we were 100% convinced that our move is right, we usually won. When we were not so sure but thought well… it would be nice, we didn’t get what we wanted. Going to Bulgaria would depend on our success in Romania and in Serbia. If we are not successful in Romania, we will not go to Bulgaria.
Bulgaria would be a logical step forward if we went to Romania. Ukraine is already a good choice, since it has borders with Hungary and Slovakia. With regards to Ukraine the question is how do you assess this huge country. Do you want a big political risk or a small one? Do you want to be the first there, or will you wait a bit more?
In Poland we are too late to be the first entrant. We are not unhappy that we were not among the first movers, because the banking structure of Poland is not as attractive as it is in the Czech Republic or Hungary. But this doesn’t mean that we will not go there at all. Poland has a large state-owned savings bank with two main competitors, Unicredito and HVB, and there are several smaller banks with 3-5-6% market shares. You could easily question the validity of an investment in the latter group, just as easily as you can argue the justification of a Portuguese bank in Poland, which has no other investment between Lisbon and Warsaw. There will be changes in Poland and some day we might also go there.
– Do you consider Serbia as an important country? Romania sounds strategically more important?
– Serbia is highly important politically. Romania is soon to become a member of the EU and will keep catching up real fast. Ten years from now Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic will have GDP per capita of EUR 14-15,000.
In the meantime, Serbia-Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albania, Macedonia is still a very unstable region with very little investment going on there, with not a very bright future. The development of these countries is very important politically and Serbia can play a key role in this.
– What about Turkey?
– Turkey could be of interest, but only if we are successful in Romania, and then in Bulgaria, maybe in Moldavia and in Greece… It would not be logical just now.
-Can we expect consolidation to take place in the region?
– There will be consolidation in the region and also in the whole of Europe. The players in the region are definitely thinking about this. The key element of a potential consolidation is how to ensure growth. A massive consolidation process is ahead Europe, which will inevitably affect Central and Eastern Europe.
– What are the main pillars Erste Bank’s independency is resting on? How could one buy out Erste Bank and what are the ways it could not be acquired at all?
– Our largest shareholder is a foundation with a 32% holding in Erste Bank. This receives dividend from the bank, which it spends on social and cultural projects in the region’s countries where it operates. There is an other foundation with a 6% stake and saving banks own 7%, so you can say that we have 45% in friendly hands, but there is no contract between the owners. Erste Bank’s 55% is free float. Unless somebody can convince the foundation to sell, it is very difficult to acquire Erste Bank. And since I happen to be the Chairman of the foundation, they would have to convince me that is a very attractive idea to sell.
In reality it is just a question of price, but it would be so high that nobody could afford it. If somebody wants to buy Erste Bank, let’s say for EUR 20 billion, the goodwill would be so high that it would be a tough nut to crack even for the largest financial institutions. Hence, a buy-up is extremely unlikely.
Our shareholders invested in a bank that had 600,000 clients. Out of our 12 million clients 10 million have scarce resources. Most of our clients in the Czech Republic make CZK 25,000 in a month, which is not a lot when it comes to savings and life insurance. However, our clients will get wealthier, and they will reach EU levels. Then our shareholders will have all the growth and value they had invested in. And once that happens our value won’t be 10 billion euros but 30 or 35 billion, and then we can talk about other matters.
– Is there any chance in the next 10 years for Erste Bank and OTP to merge?
– OTP is doing a very good job in Hungary, but their approach is a little bit different from ours. The management culture of the two banks would be very difficult to combine. Our position in Hungary is strong. Although we’re much smaller than OTP, the 10% market share we have can be considered good in Hungary. I think, however, that competition should be larger. Too big a chunk of the market is already in one hand. Hungary needs at least three equally strong retail banks so that clients get fair pricing. A merger of Erste Bank and OTP would be – from a client point of view – the worst thing that could happen. The two biggest retail players in one hand would not be good for the market.
A long time ago I wanted to do it, but they said no. I think that was one of the biggest mistakes they made in the long run.
– Erste Bank has made a considerable step forward when it acquired Postabank for HUF 101 billion. In 2003, many considered this price too high. In retrospect, would you call the purchase of Postabank a good deal?
– That shows you the logic markets are thinking along. When we bought Èeská spoøitelna at a 1.5 book value, our stock prices went down to EUR 40 from EUR 50. Investors thought it was expensive and that we wouldn’t be able to manage it. The most expensive acquisition we did was Postabank (2.6x) and the stock prices shot up from day one. It was different situation, because our business case for Postabank was based on combined value of Erste Bank and Postabank rather than on the value of Postabank alone. It did not include any aspect of potential future co-operation with Hungarian Postal Services (Magyar Posta).
The performance of the merged bank exceeded our expectations and we will have the return on investment that we had planned for 2007 already this year.
– What do you thing about the extra tax levied on Hungarian banks?
– If they don’t do it every year, it’s okay with me. When emperor Franz Josef moved into war against the Prussians in 1866, he introduced a tax on sparkling wines to finance the war. He promised the tax would be in effect for two years. You know when they cancelled it? Last year.
– What exactly are those “possible smaller acquisitions” you mentioned in a presentation in March? What areas have you targeted for expansion in Hungary?
– It was just a message that I gave publicly to signal that if anyone intends to sell something, they should keep in the mind that we are interested. I don’t think anybody is willing to sell at this point of time, but we are definitely interested in increasing our market share. If we have the chance, we would like to boost our market share by 15% in Hungary.
– Last year Austrian banks acted in concert when acquiring a majority stake in Budapest Stock Exchange. What do you think the reasons were behind that? Did they intend it to be a financial or a strategic investment?
– I don’t know what they wanted, but I can tell you what I want with it. I believe that eventually the Vienna, Budapest, Bratislava, Prague, and probably the Warsaw and Zagreb stock exchanges should create a single Central European stock exchange. I personally would float the common stock exchange and put the headquarters of that stock exchange in Bratislava.
– Why?
– Because Bratislava offers the best tax environment. If you put it in Vienna, everybody will treat it as an Austrian affair. If you place it in Budapest the Czechs would get angry. If you put it in Prague, Hungarians would be irritated, but if you put it in Bratislava, everybody would be equally furious. I don’t really care where it will end up. The point is that it has to be one central stock exchange, one market place and not controlled by a single country. That is the key – there should be equal distribution of ownership. And probably the best way to look for a location is to make an auction. You make an auction, and whoever offers the highest bid, gets to be the home of the bourse.
– The Budapest Stock Exchange wants to buy clearing house KELER and wants to finance it from a capital increase and floating in the Budapest Stock Exchange. What do you think about it?
– I don’t think anything. This is a local project. Looking 15 years ahead you’ll see that Budapest Stock Exchange, the Vienna Stock Exchange and the Prague Stock Exchange have no right to exist. Not a chance. The only chance for this region to play a role in the future is to build one large stock exchange that would cover the growth market of Europe in the next 25 years. People don’t want to invest in Poland or in Latvia or in Slovakia. They want to invest in those parts of Europe that are growing. It is a unique chance for Austria to be a part of that. At the end you may still have to link everything to the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, but then you’ll be a much bigger partner. It is not rational for national stock exchanges to exist in the future. Supporting their existence can be based on political, emotional and nationalist factors only.
– Lets talk about share prices, and potentials.
– At this point of time investors are not so much interested into ROE. They rather want to see a strong long-term growth story – both top line and bottom line. And if you can deliver that, you will still attract investors’ money.
We are a growth story even without acquisitions. We have 10 million clients, who have an average GDP per capita of 7,000 euros, which will grow to EUR 14,000 in ten years. It is a growth story in itself. If we had 10 million clients in Germany, with EUR 27,000 GDP per capita, this number may go up to EUR 27,500 in ten years. It would not be a growth story. We don’t really need buy anything, but as we have the capacity to do so, we do it.
– Do you want to float your share in Budapest as well?
– As my goal is to have a single stock exchange in the region, it would not be a logical move. It would bring additional reports, additional languages, basically a lot of extra administrative work. Unless the government or the stock exchange says: “please, we can’t survive…”, we wouldn’t do it. It’s an emotional thing, and it is really useless. In the Czech Republic we acquired a listed company, Èeská spoøitelna, and so it was justified for us to enter the bourse. And it turned out a lot better than we thought. It has really added to our liquidity. Once the Czech Republic and Hungary are in the monetary union, stepping up in Budapest would be completely useless.
Erste Bank este cea mai mare banca din Europa Centrala
Rezultatele financiare pentru anul 2004 ale Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkasse indica faptul ca aceasta banca a devenit cea mai mare institutie financiara din Europa Centrala, atat din perspectiva numarului de clienti, cat si din perspectiva totalului de active, ceea ce face ca grupul belgian KBC sa se pozitioneze in prezent pe locul secund, se arata intr-un comunicat de presa al bancii din 6 aprilie 2005.
Avand o baza de aproximativ 12 milioane clienti, Erste Bank a oferit in ultimii cinci ani, mai mult decat orice alta institutie, servicii unui numar foarte mare de clienti din regiune. Pe locul doi se afla banca belgiana KBC, cu 9,1 milioane clienti, fiind urmata pe locul trei de Raiffeisen International cu 5 milioane de clienti. Pozitiile patru si cinci sunt ocupate de Bank Austria-Creditanstalt – care face parte din Grupul german HVB – si de banca franceza Societe Generale, cu 4,4 milioane, respectiv 4 milioane de clienti.
Avand un total active de 33,3 miliarde EUR la sfarsitul anului 2004, Erste Bank devine liderul regiunii central-europene, surclasand grupul belgian KBC (31,1 miliarde EUR total active), care trece pe a doua pozitie. Grupul italian UniCredito (30,6 miliarde EUR) si subsidiara HVB, Bank Austria-Creditanstalt (30,0 miliarde EUR) se pozitioneaza pe locurile trei si patru.
Erste Bank ofera servicii de retail pe pietele financiare din Cehia, Slovacia, Ungaria, Croatia si Slovenia. Este lider de piata in ceea ce priveste depozitele retail pe pietele din Cehia si Slovacia (cu o cota de piata de 27%, respectiv 35%), situandu-se pe locul doi in Ungaria (cu o cota de piata de 10%) si pe locul trei in Croatia (cu o cota de piata de 10%). Grupul Erste Bank a finalizat opt achizitii in ultimii ani, printre care se numara si cele mai mari banci din Cehia si Slovacia: Ceska sporitelna si Slovenska sporitelna. Cea mai recenta achizitie Erste Bank a fost cea a bancii ungare Postabank, aceasta fiind integrata in Grup in luna august a anului 2004. In prezent, ratele Produsului Intern Brut in tarile din Europa Centrala sunt in jur de 4-5%, iar Erste Bank considera ca aceste tari sunt singurele piete europene cu potential de crestere. Erste Bank estimeaza cresterea PIB la un numar din doua cifre pentru aproape toate produsele de retail (de la credite de consum pana la produse de managementul activelor).
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